forecast: global growth ahead

January 15, 2009

While today’s economic headlines highlight our near-term challenges, as we consider our energy future it is important to look longer term beyond today's conditions. History tells us that the global economy will continue to grow over time — by an average three percent annually through 2030.

This economic growth will occur broadly, including the United States. It will be led by developing countries, particularly those in the Asia-Pacific region — whose GDP will have surpassed that of Europe and the United States by 2030.

Economic expansion — coupled with continued population growth — will lead to increased demand for energy, especially for transportation fuels and electricity. By 2030, global energy demand will be about 35 percent higher than in 2005.

To meet rising energy demand, we must develop all economically viable energy sources, and find ways to use energy more efficiently. We also must curb energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions. An integrated set of solutions relying on new technologies will be essential to achieving all of these goals.

Even with our current economic slowdown, our global energy challenge remains unchanged. By encouraging technological innovation, long-term energy investment, and informed dialogue, we can ensure we have the energy needed to fuel economic growth and lift global living standards through 2030 and beyond.