Supply and technology

For people and economies to advance, energy supplies must grow to meet their needs. Through 2040, improvements in technology will further expand supplies of oil and keep pace with expected strong growth in demand for natural gas. A global drive toward lower-carbon energy sources also will support strong growth in nuclear and renewable fuels, and the first-ever extended global decline in coal usage.

Conventional crude production holds steady
Oil and other liquid fuels will remain the world’s largest energy source in 2040, meeting about one-third of demand. Globally, demand for liquid fuels will rise by almost 30 percent over the next 30 years. Close to 80 percent of this increase is tied to transportation.

Advances in technology will be key to expanding liquid fuel supplies. As conventional crude oil production holds relatively flat through 2040, demand growth will be met by newer sources. The biggest gains will come from global deep-water production, which more than doubles through 2040. This growth illustrates the power of new technologies. Deep-water production was in its infancy just 10 years ago; by 2025, it will provide 10 percent of global liquid fuels supplies.

The composition of liquid fuels is changing, but one fact is not: the world continues to hold significant oil resources. Even by 2040, ExxonMobil estimates that less than half of the world's oil will have been produced. And it is important to note that as new technologies are developed, estimates of the amount of remaining global resources continue to be revised.

New oil discoveries join with already producing fields
It is important to know that although much attention is paid to how technologies—and with good reason—most of today’s liquid fuels come from fields that have been producing for decades. More than 95 percent of the crude oil produced today was discovered before the year 2000. About 75 percent was discovered before 1980.

As demand rises, advances in technology continue to layer on new sources of supply. Decisions made decades ago to invest in technology, exploration and development are critical to meeting today’s energy demand. And decisions made today will help meet demand for generations to come.

Efforts to reduce emissions help gas become the number-two fuel
Natural gas will be the fastest-growing major fuel to 2040, with demand rising by more than 60 percent. Much of this growth will come from electric utilities and other consumers shifting away from coal in order to reduce CO2 emissions. By 2025, natural gas—which emits up to 60 percent less CO2 emissions than coal when used for electricity generation—will have overtaken coal as the second most popular fuel, after oil.

Learn more about how natural gas rises sharply through 2040.

The global energy mix will grow more diverse
Considering that 100 years ago, most of the world’s energy came from wood and coal, it is clear that energy supplies can change dramatically over time. While government policies and consumer preferences each play a role in this evolution, the biggest factor is advancements in technology, which shape both demand for energy and the supplies used to meet that demand. Economics and affordability are also key factors that enable a fuel to reach the scale needed to penetrate the market.

Over the next 30 years, advances in technology will continue to remake the world’s energy landscape. Fuels will continue to grow less carbon-intensive and more diverse.