 |
Emissions
ExxonMobil expects global energy-related CO2 emissions to level off around the year 2030, even as overall energy use continues to increase to support economic development and human progress around the world.
This global emissions trend is the result of significant improvements in energy efficiency, plus shifts toward natural gas and other less carbon-intensive fuels, as efforts continue to manage the risks posed by rising greenhouse gas emissions.
Decades-long climb in emissions is projected to crest around 2030; OECD emissions decline 20 percent
Concerns about the risks posed by rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have prompted many countries to seek to curb their energy-related CO2 emissions. Emissions growth is already slowing on a global level, and emissions are falling in North America, Europe and other OECD regions. But from now to 2040, several factors will combine to produce an important milestone: ExxonMobil expects that global energy-related CO2 emissions will reach a plateau around 2030, and will remain essentially unchanged from 2030 through 2040.
What will cause global CO2 emissions to level off? In the OECD, emissions are expected to decline by 20 percent over the Outlook period. Another important factor is China, which today accounts for one-quarter of global emissions. China’s emissions are expected to begin declining after about 2025, ending decades of very large increases associated with rapid economic development and industrial activity.
China’s drop in emissions will be brought about by many of the same trends at work today in the OECD. The biggest factor is improved efficiency: vehicles with better fuel economy, more efficient power plants and new technologies and practices that save energy across all end-use sectors. A shift toward less carbon-intensive fuels, particularly in the electricity generation sector, also will play a role. In China, as in the OECD, demographic trends also are moderating energy demand and emissions.
Because of efficiency and a shift to lower-carbon fuels, from 2010 to 2040, the rate of increase in global CO2 emissions will be about half the rate of growth in global energy demand. However, the projected downturns in emissions in the OECD and China will be offset by continued increases from other Non OECD nations, such as India.
Per-capita emissions trends shift through 2040 as the OECD declines, China peaks and other countries rise
Throughout The Outlook for Energy, we see countries with different levels of energy usage depending on their stage of economic development. People who live in more affluent regions tend to have higher per-capita energy use, as they are more likely to use a personal vehicle, live in a relatively large house, use substantial amounts of electricity, and have significant energy-dependent industrial sectors and commercial services including education and advanced medical care.
These trends also are reflected in energy-related CO2 emissions patterns. However, per-capita CO2 emissions patterns are shifting.
While the United States’ per-capita emissions remain the highest in the world, they are expected to decline significantly by 2040. Europe, whose per-capita emissions today are less than half the level seen in the United States, also will see declines. China’s per-capita emissions, which have risen sharply in recent decades, will reach a par with the levels seen in Europe, but then begin declining after 2030.
On the other hand, many countries that today have very low per-capita emissions will see steep increases through 2040 as economic growth more than offsets the effect of improved efficiency. India, for example, will see its per-capita emissions rise by nearly 70 percent. However, even by 2040, India’s per-capita emissions will still be less than half the level seen in China. Large increases in per-capita emissions also will be seen in Africa and Latin America.
