Gas supply/demand balance

Natural gas is expected to be the fastest-growing major fuel source, growing more than 50 percent by 2030, when it will have overtaken coal as the second-biggest global fuel source. Much of the demand for natural gas will come from the power generation sector, attracted by the fact that gas not only is an efficient fuel source but also produces fewer emissions than oil or coal.

The steady rise in natural gas demand in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific will require increases in imports to those regions.

North American natural gas production will remain steady due to increases in nonconventional sources such as tight gas and shale gas, but demand growth of 1 percent per year will mean that imports must increase an average of about 10 percent annually through 2030 to keep pace. This increase will be met by liquefied natural gas (LNG) — natural gas that has been supercooled for transport via ship.

With domestic production falling, Europe will meet its demand growth with a combination of imports via pipelines (largely from Russia and the Caspian region) and LNG. Asia Pacific demand will grow 150 percent by 2030 and will also be met by pipeline and LNG imports.